Monday, August 8, 2016

Second Poll Shows Trump Trailing in Georgia; Will Trump Leave the Race if Historic Defeat is on the Horizon?

Shock waves reverberated through the political world with the release last week of an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll late last week showing Republican Donald Trump losing Georgia by 4 points. Georgia hasn't voted Republican for President since 1992 when the state was won by former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.  Before that you have to go back to Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter for a Democratic presidential election victory in the state.  

Now comes the release of a second poll showing Trump trailing in the Georgia, this time by 7 points. The poll, conducted by JM Analytics, included Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.  The AJC poll also included a multiple party candidate field question.   Clinton's lead fell from 4 to 3 points in that poll when the additional candidates are included.  That is consistent with virtually every poll which shows Hillary Clinton's support dropping slightly when additional candidate options are provided.

I have long argued that the focus on Trump switching blue states to red is misplaced.  The New York businessman's real "legacy" to the Republican Party will be flipping many states from red to blue. I think there is a very good chance that Indiana will be one of those states come November.  I think
Hillary Clinton's electoral vote will pass 350 and may go as high as 400.

Finally, one thing to watch out in the days ahead is the very real possibility Trump will leave the race. If Trump is headed toward an historic defeat, one that will damage his reputation and his future business interests, he may well choose to drop out saying that "Crooked Hillary" was "rigging" the election."  (He appears to be already laying the groundwork to that end.)  Letting a successor take the "L" would allow Trump to claim to his cult-like followers that he could have won the Presidency if he chose to stay in the race.  Most certainly his followers will believe him.

As a side note, the 168 member Republican National Committee would meet to select another nominee should Trump drop out.  (As an alternative, the RNC could call another convention of the thousands of Republican delegates to replace the nominee...not likely.)  News accounts make it sound like an easy process. I question that.  State ballot access laws govern the placement of candidates, including federal candidates, on the ballot.  I am not so sure that a new presidential candidate could simply be substituted within the last 60 days on all 50 state ballots.  Needless to say, there could be considerable litigation involved in the process.


Christine Scales said...

One can only hope-and pray.

True Republican said...

Rumors are circulating that Bruce Jenner would replace Trump!

Guest said...

Did you even listen to his economic speech? Have you listened to his rallies? Or have you only listened to the media soundbites, inuendos, misleading headlines and actual distortions and propaganda as they are Marxists along with all the vested interests pulling out all stops to keep the status quo. So, he may not be politically correct, but he has managed to bring all of them out of the woodwork to protect all that is wrong which they caused. More of Obama and worse for the next 4 years? Hillary and company are communists in democrat clothing.

Sir Hailstone said...

As much as DJT keeps running off at the mouth we could see a repeat of 1936 where FDR carried 46 of 48 states.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Scales is voting for Killery.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Yes, Guest, I have listened Trump's economic speech (which obviously written by someone else) and his rallies. I have reached the conclusion that Donald Trump is an unintelligent buffoon totally unqualified, unfit and lacking the temperament to be President. He lies every other time he opens his mouth. I have no reason to believe, none, that he is no longer the liberal Democrat he's been his entire life. He's certainly not a conservative.

My negative view I have of Trump is based entirely on the stupid things that moron has said.

leon dixon said... Permit a contrary, informed view.

leon dixon said... So, your theory in support of her is that there is nothing there? Like the cheshire Cat?

Paul K. Ogden said...

Leon, don't you think the President, and Commander-in-Chief, should have some basic qualifications and temperament for the office? I certainly do. We Republicans threw away our right to challenge Hillary Clinton when we nominated someone completely unfit for office.