Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Trump's New York Rout Increases Importance of Indiana's Primary

Yesterday, New York businessman Donald Trump routed his opponents with a sweeping victory in the Empire State, winning New York with 60.5% of the vote.  Ohio Governor John Kasich finished with 25.1% and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who earlier had complained that Trump had "New York values" finished last with 14.5% of the vote.  Trump received 89 of the 92 delegates awarded in the contest.

That Trump would win New York was never in doubt. The size of the victory though was in question
Donald Trump
and was very important as clearing the 50% hurdle not only statewide but in New York's 27 congressional districts, resulted in a shutout of delegates for the person in second place.

New York represents one of the few states in which Trump has outperformed his poll number.  Trump went into the primary with a Real Clear Politics polling average of 53.1%.  Kasich and Cruz seemed to sense they wouldn't succeed in New York and began focusing their attention on other states.

The Trump train's success is expecting to continue in its tour of Eastern blue states.  In a week, Republican voters in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Delaware go to the polls.  Trump is favored to win all five states.  Cruz, who is second in the delegate tally, will struggle to finish second in those states.  Cruz's one saving grace in those states is proportionality rules that my limit the delegates that Trump collects.

Then comes Indiana.  The Cruz forces are depending on the Hoosier state to be a gateway to success to the western states that follow Indiana's May 3rd primary.  Indiana awards 57 delegates, 30 to the statewide winner and three each to the winner in Indiana's 9 congressional districts.

The importance of Indiana just increased last night.  While Cruz is expected to do much better out west in states like Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota Oregon, Washington, and even California, Indiana is critical to righting his delegate ship after a likely east coast sweep of states by Trump.  Further, given the fact that Indiana eschews proportionality in favor of a plurality wins all delegate system, the state is a rich prize.  If Trump wins Indiana, then those Indiana GOP delegates, who most likely would favor Kasich on a second ballot, will be bound to vote for the New York businessman for the first round.  With a big win in Indiana, Trump will upend the current consensus among political analysts that the GOP is heading for a contested convention in Cleveland.

In a few days, I'll make my Indiana predictions, looking in particular at the state's congressional districts.  A hint on ascertaining what Indiana is likely to do depends on distinguishing congressional districts as being dominated by Reagan (Former) Democrats, Traditional Conservatives and Moderate Republicans. 


leon dixon said...

That last category has the same meaning as "loser", RINO, and squish.

LamLawIndy said...

Trump should do well in CD 1 & maybe 7. Cruz should do well in CDs 2 & perhaps 3. I've got no idea regarding the other 5 districts.

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is. The country has changed, but the GOP hasn't.