Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Cruz Easily Defeats Trump in Wisconsin; Sanders Continues His String of Wins Over Hillary Clinton

Ted Cruz won a big victory in the Wisconsin GOP primary last night, defeating Donald Trump 48.2% to 37.1%.  Ohio Governor John Kasich finished third with 14.1%

In winning, the Texas Senator won 6 of 8 congressional districts and 36 of the state's delegates.  Trump, who won two Wisconsin congressional districts, received 6 delegates.   After the aberration
Sen. Ted Cruz
of Arizona, Cruz returned to his practice of outperforming his polls by securing a 13 point victory.   Recent Wisconsin polls had Cruz winning by no more than 10 points, and most were single digits.   The most recent Wisconsin poll, by the sometimes ridiculed polling outfit the American Research Group (ARG), actually showed Trump defeating Cruz in Wisconsin by 10 points.

The Cruz victory increases substantially the possibility that Trump will not arrive at the national convention in Cleveland with the requisite 1237 delegates required to secure a first ballot victory.  Meanwhile Cruz is maneuvering behind the scenes to ensure that, even in states Trump won, those delegates actually support him.  Thus, when if the convention goes to a second ballot those delegates will be unbound and free to vote for Cruz instead of Trump.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Sanders won Wisconsin 56.6% to Hillary Clinton's 43.1%. This makes six state contests that Sanders has won in a row.   The win though highlights Sanders' challenge in catching Clinton in the delegate race.  Despite the solid victory, Sanders won only 47 of the state's 83 Democratic delegates.

1 comment:

leon dixon said...

Out performing polls? The entrails of birds is more reliable? Aren't most polls just dressed up lies? And, isn't their main use the ability they provide talking heads something to talk about, a framing, so to speak, that frames their actual ignorance?

So, bad polling results is about the same thing as bad science or junk science. Gallup realizes this. They don't do Presidential part, because they have a reputation to protect.

shills don't.