Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Trump, Cruz, Sanders Score Impressive Western State Wins

Donald Trump
Donald Trump on Tuesday scored a huge victory in Arizona, winning all of the state's 58 delegates in the winner-take-all contest.  What is most significant about the victory is that Trump outperformed his poll margin by an unprecedented 9.4%.  His next closest is Arkansas where his margin was 6.3% bigger than projected.  Trump had underperformed the margin during 15 of 20 contests.

Looking at the individual poll numbers v. results, Trump was 9.1% better while Texas Senator Ted Cruz exceeded his raw poll numbers by only .3%.  Cruz almost always outperforms the polls by a significant percentage but in Arizona, despite out organizing Trump, he was trounced by the New York businessman 47.1% to 24.7%.  Ohio Governor John Kasich finished last with 10.0%.

The Utah GOP caucus though was a completely different matter.  There Cruz cruised with 69.2% of the vote, receiving all the state's 40 delegates.  Trump finished an astonishing third, tallying only 14.0% support among the record turnout.  Kasich finished second with 16.9% of the vote.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won the Arizona primary over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 56.6% to 39.9%.  But then Sanders blew out Clinton winning Utah and Idaho caucuses, with 79.3% and 78% of the vote respectively.

It is astonishing that we could be this late in the campaign season with the front-runner in both parties not having the support of 4 of 5 members of their party in some state contests.

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