Monday, February 8, 2016

Redoing My New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Last week, I made the last minute decision to change my prediction in the Iowa Republican caucus...changing my choice on who would win the state from Donald Trump to Ted Cruz.  That paid off big time as Cruz defied the polls and pulled off the victory.  My only mistake was dipping so low
as to try to pick the fourth place finisher on the Republican side, choosing Kentucky Senator Rand Paul to occupy that position instead of surgeon Ben Carson.  Okay, I also did err picking Bernie Sanders to edge out Hillary Clinton but since Clinton only won by a tiny fraction of 1% (.25%), I'm counting that as a victory too.

I've decided to emulate the Iowa caucus and make some last minute tweaks to my New Hampshire primary.  On the heels of Florida Senator Marco Rubio's widely-panned debate performance Saturday night, I am going to reshuffle my predictions.  Instead of Saturday afternoon's prediction of the top three finishers being, Trump-Rubio-Cruz., I think the negative press about Rubio's performance is going to help Ohio Governor John Kasich move past the Florida Senator.  I also see Cruz doing a bit better than expected. So my predicted finish is going to be Trump-Cruz-Kasich-Rubio.  Trump will be at about 30%, while Cruz will finish with about 18%.  Kasich and Rubio will also score in the teens.

On the Democratic side, I see Bernie Sanders victory  margin as being in the range of 12%-15%, much less than the 30% that some polls have.  I reiterate my earlier prediction that the Clinton camp will spin (successfully) the closer than anticipated loss as a win for Hillary.


MikeC said...

Trump Bush Kasich

Anonymous said...

So? My predictions are equally worthless and i suggest folks wait for real polling data.

LamLawIndy said...

I echo your predictions. Gov. Kasich seems well-suited to a NH electorate.