Saturday, December 5, 2015

Is Cruz Now the Only Hope to Stop a Trump Nomination?

Looking over the CNN poll released yesterday, and comparing it to one six weeks earlier, reveals surprising results.

First, New York businessman Donald Trump expanded his support from 27% to 36% while physician Ben Carson fell from 22% to 14%. The physician is now in third behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz who
Texas Senator Ted Cruz

rose from 4% to 16% since the middle October CNN poll.  As a result of the shakeup, Trump expanded his lead from 5% in the earlier CNN poll to 20% in the latest.

All are major developments.  But maybe the most significant development of them all is that the anti-establishment GOP vote (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina and Paul) has expanded to from 62% in the earlier CNN poll to 70% in the most recent one.  The anti-establishment mood of the Republican Party not only is not fading; it is growing.

That is a huge development.  Although it is a stretch to call Marco Rubio an establishment candidate given he was elected with tea party support, and still enjoys significant tea party support, the Florida Senator is the leading non-outsider with 12% of the vote.  While that's an improvement over his previous 8%, it is not clear how GOP establishment's rallying behind his candidacy gets him anywhere close to a majority of the vote.  If Jeb Bush (3%), Chris Christie (4%), and John Kasich (2%), all dropped out and their support drifted to Rubio, he still would only have 21% of the vote, 15% behind where Trump is now.

Rubio continues to poll as the best general election candidate against Hillary Clinton, while Trump polls as the worst.  Of course, head-to-head matchups don't mean much if you don't win the nomination.

There may be a time, in the not too distant future, when GOP establishment types have to eat crow and line up behind Cruz to prevent Trump from winning the nomination.  Given Trump's lengthy liberal political history, and his history of being less than honest, conservatives have a lot to fear that Trump is simply pretending to support their views to win the nomination.  That is even before you get to the controversial things Trump says and does while on the stump, including most recently mocking a reporter by imitating his disability.

Hillary Clinton is not a strong candidate.  With Obama-fatigue setting in the, this is an election the Republicans should win.  Yet, if Trump is nominated the Republicans not only are likely to lose, there is a possibility that Trump may actually lose all 50 states and sink Republican control of the Senate and House with him.

Yes, Ted Cruz is beginning to look like the only real alternative for conservatives.


Anonymous said...

You should try hot boiling water with your tea leaves and bird entrails. You have seen Carson implode. Trump can implode as well but he has tapped into a knowledge shared with huge numbers of people that the Republican Establishment are a pack of liars who take their base for granted and who have little interest or knowledge in governing. All they want is to continue to loot, steal, rob. This does not distinguish them from Democrats. Trump, by the way, would only serve one term and might even resign early after accomplishing what he thinks needs to be done. The Establishment hates what it cannot control so Tea Party sorts are warred upon, Palin who put Republican crooks in jail was especially hated, Cruz is hated in the Senate by the bought and paid for purveyors of mendacity, Bachman could not be controlled. It then becomes a matter of too much Crow for the sons of bitches of the Establishment to eat, chew, swallow, and like. Like Indiana, they of the Republican Establishment will make common cause with HRC just like in Indiana Senator Donnelly was preferred by them to an authentic Republican (who they could not control). Interesting, isn't it that they wound up controlling the Treasurers Office in Indiana?

LamLawIndy said...

I underestimated Sen. Cruz & paid him little attention until recently. He's bright & strategic in his thinking. He's got gobs of money.

Pete Boggs said...

There are those who worked the polls during the 2012 election, who can list several names of establishment "Republicans"who openly derided Murdock while declaring support for Donnelly- that happened. Whatever anyone thinks about Murdock's rape comment; it was gleefully mischaracterized & taken out of context; held not to human standards of interest in clarification, but a cynical, robotically inflexible, slavish non-standard of PC.

Whatever people think of Trump and / or his flaws; he's been an effective counterpunch to an abusive PC'd media & establishment & their hostility toward those the party once considered its base.

Anonymous said... But, Trump comes on afterwards......their rendition.

Anonymous said... For people who love some polls. In Indiana, to support Mr. Bogg's not so widely known observation consider the office most of the larger R's desired, e.g. the keys to the Indiana Treasury. So, an idiot was proposed to the voters while their real candidate was sold as the counterweight to the idiot-at least to the "base". When she was elected, it did not take very long before her true colors were unfurled and the larger R's were in control. Paul seems to fear that Trump is just a similar stalking horse (as they are known) for the Clinton's. E.G. for some unknown to us reasons, HC fears Jeb Bush a lot more than anyone else in the R party and she may or may not be correct. $100,000,000 in the bank does tend to give one political heft.
Who knows why Trump is running or if his motives have remained the same? If a stalking horse gets off its tether it will eat all the lush green grass it can find. Trump has killed off Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio over the immigration issues as the base and most of America believes Bush and Rubio to be sellouts to corporate America....themselves victim of the abortion fiasco that resulted in too few workers (50,000,000 killed off) and an unfixable hole in Social Security. So, if the Donald began his crusade after reading Ann Coulter's book, Adios, America, as an aid to HC it does not mean that having experienced success on his own that he should step out of contention, task completed. Still, as we have seen above, strange bedfellows are often employed for devious ends and the public remains, for the most part, unaware.
Murdock did not take orders well. It did not take long for his successor to purge that office and go over to the dark side where conspiracy theorists always did have her.

Nicolas Martin said...

Oh, great. The better candidate is the one who just consorted with the preacher who advocates the killing of gays. That's a real comfort.

LamLawIndy said...

Which religious leaders a candidate consorts with is apparently irrelevant to the American voter, as Pres. Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright has shown.