Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.
The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.
Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.
The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New
York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.
Dr. Ben Carson
Other polls show Trump's support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.The IBD poll appears to be a bit of an outlier, understating Trump's support while overstate Carson's. While most polls show Trump's support falling off earlier highs, they still show Trump in the mid to lower 20% range and still leading the pack. This view is confirmed with a Pew Research poll released on Friday that shows Trump leading with 25% and Carson second with 16%.
Nonetheless, it does appear that support among Trump has topped out at around 25%. The problem for the New York businessman is that he is few Republicans' second choice. As others candidates drop out, their supporters are likely to go to Trump's remaining opponents.
It's interesting that while Democrats like to call Republicans, and the Tea Party, in particular, racist it is African-American Ben Carson who is a favorite. Even in the heart of the Old Confederacy, Louisiana, Carson is popular, leading Trump 23% to 19% in yet another recent poll.