Sunday, January 25, 2015

Democrats Fool Themselves Into Believing They're Winning While GOP Enjoys Unprecedented Electoral Success

If you spend too much time on Facebook, as I do, you see no end to Democrats offering suggestions for how Republicans can fix their party.  We're told the GOP needs to return back to the views of President Eisenhower to become popular again.  Or that the Republicans need to abandon social issues and become the party of Senator Barry Goldwater, advancing just fiscal issues.  (After all, that strategy worked so well for Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election.)  Or that the extremist Tea Party is dooming Republican candidates.

On the flipside, I have no shortage of Republican friends who criticize Democrats on Facebook.   But almost always the approach is different. They attack Democrats for their views and policies.   When Democrats attack Republicans on Facebook it is almost always comes accompanied by a claim Republicans are crazy racist sexist homophobes who hate poor people (check one or all).

It is the Achilles' heel of  the liberal elitists who dominate the Democratic Party that they cannot conceive of the fact that not everyone shares their view of the world.  Rather, the liberals' approach seems more to talk just to each other to gain affirmation that their world view is the one held by most Americans and that anyone who thinks differently must have some sort of mental deficiency.  If they lose an election, it is not that the Democrats' policies are wrong, it is that the voters are stupid and were tricked by those crazy tea party Republicans.

But while the Democrats have convinced themselves that the Republican Party is in trouble, indeed near extinction, the electoral scoreboard shows something else entirely.   Republicans have entered an era of almost unprecedented success.  Let's take a look at how well the Republicans are doing:
State Legislatures:  Republicans control 66 of 99 legislative chambers.   Republicans have complete control in 30 legislatures, while Democrats control both chambers in 11 legislatures.  (The other 9 have split control.)

Governors:  Republicans today have 31 of the 50 state governorships while Democrats have only 17.  There is one independent.

Complete Control of State Government:    Only seven states have a Democratic governor and Democratic legislature, the lowest level of Democratic state domination since the Civil War.  Republicans have complete control of state government in 24 states.

Congress:   Of the 435 member U.S. House, 247 are Republicans.  That is the largest Republican House majority in 85 years.  Republicans have 54 of the 100 U.S. Senators. Since Obama's election in 2008, Democrats have lost 70 seats in Congress and 900 state legislative seats.  That is, respectively, a partisan swing of 140 and 1800 seats.
Of course, much of the Democrats' belief that their party is winning is based on Barack Obama's two presidential election victories.  Yet, in 2012, Barack Obama received just 51% of the popular vote against a very weak Republican nominee.  While many believe 2012 was an electoral college landslide despite being a relatively close popular vote, in fact it was the 21st closest electoral vote ever.  With a swing of 333,000 votes (just .26% of the total popular vote) in New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Virginia would have given Romney the election.

Rather than spending time offering less than helpful suggestions regarding how the GOP can hone its message, the Democrats would be wise to take stock on their own electoral failures and revise their message and policies so that the Democrats have more appeal to Americans who are rejecting the party in record numbers.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your analysis would be better if you included the counter-balancing factor of the Demos control of virtually all of the big American cities. The lack of voting motivation among the nation's poor and minority is another skewing factor. Let's hope that the trend continues.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Anon 1:19, that's a good point. However, the relationship between cities and states is not the same as between states and federal. Cities exist in a unitary relationship with states, but states have a federal relationship with the national government. Cities, counties, local governments are merely subunits of state government. States can take away their power and authority whenever they want. I don't think anyone would want to trade a mayorship someplace, anyplace for that matter, for control of state legislatures and Congress. That's where the real power is.

Anonymous said...

Let's see if you have the courage to print this. Republican forums are always the quickest to censor unpopular comments.

"Says Paul: State Legislatures: Republicans control 66 of 99 legislative chambers. Republicans Have complete control in 30 legislatures, while Democrats control both chambers in 11 legislatures. (The other 9 have split control.)"

What number of people is represented by Democratic Representatives vs. Republicans Representatives?

"Says Paul: Governors: Republicans today have 31 of the 50 state governorships while Democrats have only 17. There is one independent."

What number of people have a Democratic Governor vs. a Republican Governor?

"Says Paul: Congress: Of the 435 member U.S. House, 247 are Republicans. That is the largest Republican House majority in 85 years. Republicans have 54 of the 100 U.S. Senators. Since Obama's election in 2008, Democrats have lost 70 seats in Congress and 900 state legislative seats. That is, respectively, a partisan swing of 140 and 1800 seats."

What number of people is represented by Democratic Congressional Representatives vs. Republican Congressional Representatives?

Republicans may be winning a few elections on their way out, but they're losing people.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/abolish_the_single_member_district_that_s_the_best_way_to_ensure_truly_fair.html

The Republicans are dying. The Republicans are getting an increasing share of a decreasing demographic [market]. In Business, that scenario is called a "Death Spiral." Almost every Republican Party plank is the product of some sort of evil. Anti-abortion is a decent position, but the Republicans cancel out that position with endless war for Israel.

As was said recently on lewrockwell.com, "The GOP and the conservative movement are lost causes. Libertarians are wasting their time trying to infiltrate them."

The Republicans are narrow-minded hatemongers whose greatest hobby seems to be death and killing. They're intellectually bankrupt. Any new ideas are coming out of the Democratic Party.

Anonymous said...

of course states have a bit of a problem taking away cities ability to be the economic engine of the states...

Paul K. Ogden said...

Anon 3:06, so the Republicans are "dying," involved in a "death spiral" and a "lost cause" yet the Republicans hold a record level of offices in state and national government? Yeah, keep trying to convince yourself of that one.

I don't really give pay any attention to anything Lew Rockwell has to say. When you're an avowed racist, that pretty much causes you to lose credibility on any other subject.

Jim Hass said...

Democrats are losing elections recently, and where they are winning, they are losing voters because of outmigration. When it happened to cities, they called it white flight. What pejorative will they come up with to explains the millions that have left New York, Michigan, Illinois and California?

Anonymous said...

I'm a Republican, and I'd never, ever, voted for a Democrat until Bush The Dumber ran. Now I simply can't imagine voting for a Republican at anything above the local level.

RhondaLeeBaby69 said...

PO ignores the elephant in the room that is gerrymandering - which is the only reason Republicans are enjoying success nowadays. If we apportioned our representation by a strict popular vote, Democrat would be far ahead of Republican representation. Why do you think Republicans only support National Popular Vote legislation in states that they lost in the previous 2 presidential election years?

Paul K. Ogden said...

Rhonda, gerrymandering isn't something that just happened. It has been going on for 200 years. Both parties do it whenever given the opportunity. Since this is not a factor that changed, your argument falls flat.

FYI, there was a period where the Democrats controlled the House for over 40 years in the 20th Century? You don't think gerrymandering played a part in that? Again, gerrymandering isn't new and its done equally by both parties whenever given a chance.

LamLawIndy said...

Actually, "black flight" & "brown flight" are phenomena that were observed & commented upon in the 90s.