This November's
election will more closely approximate the turnout in the municipal elections
in 2015. If the GOP baseline vote comes
in at 42% or less, that will push the county beyond being what is seen by most analysts as competitive. Such a result might
also cause Indianapolis Republican Mayor Greg Ballard to opt out of running for
a third term as the partisan hill will have become too steep to climb.
“Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph.” Haile Selassie
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Will GOP Downward Slide in Indianapolis-Marion County County Continue in 2014?
One race I will be watching closely on election night is the
Marion County Recorder's race. Why? Because that race more than any of the others,
best establishes the new baseline for the political parties. With no offense to the candidates involved in
the race - Republican Terry Dove and Democrat Kate Sweeney Bell - their race is a default race. Because only a tiny
percentage of voters will actually know the candidates, voters tend to
"default" to their party preference when casting a ballot on that race. Low profile races such as recorder are used
to establish the parties "baseline vote."
I have been
tracking the declining GOP base in Marion County. November will be an off-year election. While
Republicans in Marion County do better in off-years, the Republican base has
continued to erode for the last several elections. See graph. It should be noted that 2010 was an excellent
Republican year and, nonetheless, the Democrats still trimmed off nearly two more
points from the Republican base.
I would add that Marion County Republicans do substantially worse in
presidential elections when there is a much higher turnout. My analysis shows the GOP base vote has
dropped from 50.09% in 2000 to 38.21% in 2012.
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3 comments:
Recorder's Race? We elect musicians?
A recorder has the responsibility of handling the filing of real estate documents which are substantial. In many states, such as Florida, this responsibility is included within the Clerk's Office. Indiana breaks out those responsibilities into a separate office.
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