Saturday, September 27, 2014

Real Clear Politics Average of Polls Show Republicans Winning a Majority of U.S. Senate Seats

This evening I took a look at the Real Clear Politics average of polls for the various Senate races.  Right now the AOP show Republicans leading in eight states that are currently controlled by the Democrats.  Below I have listed those states and the Republican advantage:

West Virginia  19%
Montana  19%
South Dakota 13.3%
Louisiana 5.6%
Alaska  4.7%
Arkansas 3.6%
Iowa 2.2%
Colorado .8%

Republicans also have outside shots in:

North Carolina -3.6%
New Hampshire  -4.5%
Michigan  -4.7%

Kansas is the only state where a Republican incumbent is presently losing.  In that state, Senator Pat Roberts Republican has trailed Independent and former Democrat Greg Orman in the last four polls from 5% to 10%.  Orman is expected to caucus with the Democrats.

Republicans currently have 45 seats in the U.S. Senate.  Since the Democrats have the tiebreaking vote in the Senate with Vice President Biden, the Republicans need 51 seats to gain control.  If Republicans and Democrats hold serve, the Republicans will pick up 8 seats and lose 1, giving the GOP one more than the six net seats needed for the majority.

The Democrats appear to have two other shots at Republican seats, Georgia and Kentucky.  However, in those states the Republicans have a 3.4% and 5.25% lead respectively.

Obviously this election is close, though you have to give a slight edge to the Republicans simply because the Democrats are defending so many seats.

1 comment:

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