Monday, August 25, 2014

Polls Show Republicans Appear Poised to Take Back the U.S. Senate in 2014

It appears the Republicans are on their way to winning back the Senate in 2014.  Currently there are 53 Democrats and 45 Republicans.  Two independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, caucus with the Democrats.  With Vice President Joe Biden presiding over the Senate, Republicans would need to pick up six seats in 2014 to have a majority.

The Democrats appear to be conceding three open seats formerly held by Democrats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota where Republicans lead by 12%, 20% and 14.5%

That means that Republicans need only win three Democratic seats while holding their own.  The Republicans currently lead in Iowa (.8%), North Carolina (1%), Louisiana (1%), and Arkansas (3%).  Republicans also appear to have solid shots at Alaska (-3.7%), Michigan (-4%), New Hampshire (-6.6%) and Colorado (-2.5%).  Many analysts also think the gap in Minnesota will close.  In that state, Senator Al Franken leads his Republican opponent by nearly 10%.

The Democrats have hopes of winning only two Republican seats, in Kentucky and Georgia. But it appears in those Republican states the Democrats may have hit ceilings on their support.  The GOP candidates lead in those states by 3% and 4.2% respectively.

Note:  All polling percentages are Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in those states.