Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Belated Political Predictions for 2014

I ordered a new crystal  ball from Amazon, however, UPS was late getting it to me.  Sorry for the delay in these predictions:
  • The debate over same sex marriage will continue on into March. Finally Republican legislative leaders will pull the issue off the table in late March or early April, effectively killing the amendment.  They will talk about the distraction from the Republican agenda caused by the issue and will point to the fact same sex marriage is already outlawed in Indiana, albeit by statute.  In reality, Republicans will be concerned it could be an issue to motivate Democratic-leaning voters in an election year. 
  • Same sex marriage advocates will continue to score legislative victories all over the country.  However, the hoped-for declaration by the U.S. Supreme Court that same sex marriage is a  constitutional right will not happen as advocates experience another 5-4 loss at the Court.
  • Democrats will pick up 3-5 seats in the Indiana House.  They will claim the gain is due to the same sex marriage issue but in reality it is due to Democrats simply regaining seats in Democratic-leaning districts that went Republican in the 2012 GOP title wave.  Meanwhile the Democrats will not make gains in the Indiana Senate.
  • Republicans will pick up 10-15 seats in the U.S. House and just enough seats in the U.S. Senate to gain control.  The fault for the Democrats, loss will be Obamacare.  The Democrats class warfare strategy will have failed in yet another election.
  • In Indianapolis, City-County Council Democrats will continue to cut deals with Mayor Greg Ballard rather than draw sharp political differences which could aid their party's candidate in 2015.
  • The Indiana Supreme Court will draw the maps for the Indianapolis City-County Council... again.
  • 2014 will be the last judicial election in Marion County run both with party slating and noncompetitive general elections.
  • Republicans will lose all county-wide races in 2014 ... by a 20% margin, including Sheriff.  The next day, Republican County Chairman Kyle Walker will claim victory.
  • 2014 will end with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie the leading GOP presidential candidate.  Christie, backed firmly by the Republican establishment, will be trailed closely by Republican Senator Rand Paul.
  • Hillary Clinton will solidify her position as the Democratic nominee for president. Concerns about her health will turn out to the biggest obstacle to her nomination.
  • Mayor Ballard will announce he is running for a third term.  The Democrats will coalesce behind State Rep. Ed Delaney.  U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett will resign to take an appointed  position in the Obama administration.
And two final ones to make certain I have at least two right:
  • I will not win a million dollars or more in the Powerball drawing.
  • The Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series.


guy77money said...

Ditto on the Cubs! Although I think they are headed in the right direction with Theo Epstein running the show. Oh was this about politics? ;)
Christie will weather the bridge and tunnel mess (that will all be forgotten by convention time) and I do hope Hillary gets the Democratic nomination. Much better then the idiot Walker from Wisconsin. I was hoping someone other then the old Democratic establishment would run for mayor but who knows!
As for the Power Ball the old saying is "Of course the game is fixed, but you can't win unless you play!" No it wasn't Robert Redford in the Sting! ;) Hmm or was it?

foretell said...

You are already wrong on the first item. By statute the Legislature must leave town by March 14. If I read the Rules correctly, HJR3 is dead if it doesn’t pass the House Chamber by February 4.

patriot paul said...

Look for Darrel Issa to enter to chase for the Presidency. And Tea Party and evangelicals continue major influence on elections.