Saturday, November 3, 2012

Storm Sandy Gives President Obama a Second Term; Obama Set to Narrowly Win Electoral College Victory While Losing Popular Vote

A week ago, the trend lines in the battleground states were going Mitt Romney's way.  But a few days ago, in conjunction with Storm Sandy hitting east coast, President Obama numbers began rebounding every so slightly in those states that will decide the election.  In the end, I think that will make the difference on Election Day.
Ogden on Politics predicts a second
term for President Barack Obama

I predict President Obama will squeek out a win in the Electoral College 281-257, while losing the nationwide popular vote by a very narrow margin.  A lot of people (not me) will be bothered that and reforming the Electoral College will be become cause célèbre for many conservatives. 

Here is my map.

Let's look at some battleground states:

ATLANTIC BATTLEGROUND:  From the beginning I've said that Romney wins Virginia (13 Electoral Votes), North Carolina (11) and Florida (29).  I still believe that today and most of the polls concur, by very narrow margins, that Romney wins those states. Right now, Virgina of the three looks to be the closest.  Romney can't afford to lose any of them and I don't think he will.

THE ISLAND IN THE NORTHEAST:  Polling has long shown that Romney had a solid shot at winning New Hampshire (4), a state in which Romney has one of this many homes.  In fact, my undecided vote analysis I discussed earlier on my blog put this state in the Romney column.  But polls recently have showed President Obama nudging across the 50% threshold.  I put this state in the President's Column.

THE WESTERN BATTLEGROUND STATES:  I've long thought Colorado (9) would be in the Romney column.  Some recent polls though show some doubt about that. Still I think he'll win that state. The polls in Nevada (6), the other western battleground state, however, have shown President Obama with a consistent lead, but a lead well within the margin of error.  I have to give Nevada to President Obama.

THE BATTLEGROUND WANNABEES:  Some states flirted with being battlegrounds this election cycle.  Minnesota (10), Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) all fall into that category.  Polling even showed the lead in Oregon (7) narrowing to 6 points. While changing partisanship holds opportunity for Republicans down the road to win these states, I just don't think it's going to happen this time.  I predict the polling showing President Obama with a small lead in those states holds up on Election Day.

THE BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND STATES:  I said from the beginning that the election would be won or lost in some of the states that have universities in the Big Ten.  I stand by that.  In particular, these states include Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6) and Ohio (18.).  Romney can win the election by prevailing in Ohio.  Or he can win by putting pulling off victories in Wisconsin and Iowa.  Of those states, Romney has the best chance to win Iowa with Ohio a narrow second.  I am guessing he'll be 0 for 3, however.

TIE SCENARIO:  If I'm wrong and Romney wins Iowa and Nevada, and I'm right on the other 48 states, there is an electoral college vote tie of 269-269.  Romney's chance of winning Nevada though has diminished.

ELECTION IS NOT OVER:  Although Obama's numbers improved after Storm Sandy, there is nothing to say that Romney's numbers won't bounce back this weekend and on Monday.  He's not out of the running at all.  Just a slight surge in the battleground states could tip the election to the challenger.  Anyone who says that President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney have this election wrapped up is certifiable and should be reported to the authorities.

MY BATTING AVERAGE IS GOING DOWN:  I fully expect there to be Election Day surprises considering how close the polling is.  In 2004, I predicted 49 of 50 states correctly.  In 2008, I was right on 48 of 50 states, including Indiana.  I don't expect my batting average of .970 to go anywhere but down after this election.

3 comments:

artfuggins said...

The popular vote may be close due to the depressed vote in NJ and NY due to Sandy but the electoral vote will not be close. Look for Obama to have 320 to 332.

Bill said...

Your numbers may be right, but I doubt Sandy will have any impact. There has never been an October Surprise that has changed an election. Plus none of the states affected by the storm are battlegrounds.

Downtown Indy said...

Since most of your recent election predictions have been wrong, I feel pretty good about your numbers.