|State Superintendent of |
Public Instruction Tony Bennett
If those figures are correct, Bennett is in serious trouble. Undecided voters typically break by about a 2/3 margin for the challenger in a race in a race involving an incumbent. That would mean Ritz wins 52-48 on election day.
While I'm a big believer in the science of polling, I have serious reservations about the Howey poll. For example, according to the cross tabs only 9% of the people polled voted in the GOP primary. I would think that possibly a misprint, but I haven't seen any correction.
While I think the Bennett-Ritz race will be below the GOP statewide baseline, I expect that Bennett will cross the winners line with about 53% of the vote on election day. That is actually signficantly better than his 51-49 victory in 2008.