Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Predictions: Marion County House Races

Here are my predictions for the Marion County Indiana House races:

District 86:  This northside district features legislative veteran Edward Delaney, a Democrat, defending his seat against Republican Luke Bosso.  If it were an open seat, Republicans likely would have sunk money into trying to pick up the marginally Democratic northside seat.  Without an opponent with money, Delaney has a decided advantage.  Delaney should win without about 60% of the vote.

Representative Cindy Noe
District 87:  This is the second of the Washington Township based districts.  This one though features a Republican Cindy Noe defending her seat against a well-funding challenger Democrat Christina Hale.  The district is similar to the Schneider-Delaney race in that an unabashed conservative Republican is seeking a re-election against a much more liberal Democrat. Noe though has slightly better numbers to work with and should edge out this race.

District 88:  House Speaker Brian Bosma not surprisingly landed in a safe Republican district.  He should prevail easily over Brandon Perry.

Districts 89 and 90:  Two Republican indcumbents, Cindy Kirchhofer and Mike Speedy are unopposed in southside districts.

District 91:   Long-time Republican incumbent Robert Behning squares off against Democrat Michal Blinn.  Behning should prevail in this westside district with over 60% of the vote.

Tim Motsinger
District 92:  This is an open seat vacated by Republican Phil Hinkle.  Tim Motsinger won a highly contested primary and faces a well-funded Democrat Karlee Macer.  Motsinger should edge Macer out.  This is a district, however, that is likely to trend more Democratic later in the decade.

District 93:  Republican David Frizzell faces Democrat Ryan Guillory in this southside district.  The seat is a safe one for Frizzell.

District 94:  Democrat Cherish Pryor's only competition is Socialist Ronald Haldeman.  It will be interesting seeing what percent Haldeman gets.  I'm thinking as much as 15%.    Still that leaves Prior with 85% and an easy win.

District 95:  Democratic incumbent John Bartlett is unopposed.

District 96:  Democratic incumbent Greg Porter faces Republican Karl Schamberg and Libertrain Wesley Bishop.  While Porter drew two challengers, the central Indianapolis district is the most heavily Democratic house district in Marion County with a baseline of 83%.   Porter wins easily.

AJ Feeney-Ruiz
District 97:  In what should be the closest race in the county, Republican AJ Feeney-Ruiz squares off against Demcorat Justin Moed.  This near southside district which includes southern Center Township and northern Perry Township is one of the few areas of the county that has grown more Republican. That gave mapmakers the chance to tip the district against Democratic incumbent Mary Ann Sullivan who chose to run for the State Senate instead.  With a Republican baseline of 52.4%, Feeney-Ruiz can't afford to lose many voters.  My guess is Feeney-Ruiz wins a squeaker, thanks in no small part to pro-Romney vote in that district.

District 98:  Democrat Robin Shakleford has no opponent in her race for this open seat.

Dan Forestal
District 99:  Democratic incumbent Vanessa Summers faces Republican challenger David Blank.  Blank, who is a physician, appears to have a well-funded operation.  He has yard signs throughout the district, billboards, and numerous internet ads  The problem though is that it is an 80% Democratic district. Blank's efforts can move the voters some, but the most gifted politician ever couldn't move 30% of the electorate.  Summers wins easily.  I personally hope that Dr. Blank doesn't burn himself and his supporters out running in these unwinnable districts.   This is the second unwinnable district he's run in.

District 100:  This open seat, formerly held by John Day, is a possible pickup for Republicans.  Democrat Dan Forestal faces Republican Scott Keller, a former City-County Councilor, and Libertarian James Nease.  Keller is an energetic campaigner who undoubtedly has canvassed much of the district.  However, Foprestal also has a strong grass roots operation.  This near southside seat, like District 97, is turning more Republican.  The GOP probably will have a better shot at it in 2014 and in later elections.


Jeff Cox said...

Re: District 97. You mean Perry Township, not Pike.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Thanks, Jeff. I will correct.

Bob Cardwell said...

I heard that Tim Motsinger lost his bid to win an election.

Will he try again? Does he have too much negative baggage?