Monday, October 15, 2012

On Eve of Debate II, Romney's Debate I Bounce Fades

Following the first debate, Mitt Romney surged in the polls for the first time in nearly a year passing President Barack Obama in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls (RCPAP).  His lead reached its apex at 1.5%.  Now, with the next debate a little over 24 hours away, the Romney RCPAP lead is down to .2%. (Update: the race is now listed as a tie in the RCPAP).

I've been tracking state polls as well.  While Romney made clear gains in most of the battleground states, Ohio post-debate remained stubbornly in the Obama camp in most polls.  Losing Ohio would make the math for a Republican win quite challenging, but not impossible.

My belief is still that Romney is going to sweep the Atlantic coast battleground states, including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.  I more and more think Colorado will go to Romney.  I assume New Hampshire goes in the Obama column, though Romney has an outside chance there.  Two states where Romney has trailed, barely, in most polls are Nevada and Iowa.  I think he has a real shot at winning both of them.  If those states are won by Romney and the Republican loses Ohio, you have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

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