Thursday, September 27, 2012

If Romney Loses Florida and Ohio, Winning Becomes Virtually Impossible

Looking at the electoral map tonight.  Polls released over the last ten days show Obama opening up decent-sized leads in both Oho and Florida.  The polls below are listed from newer to older.

CBS Poll - Obama 10 pts
Washington Post - Obama 8 pts
Gravis Marketing - Obama 1 pt
Ohio Newspapers - Obama 5 pts
Purple Strategies - Obama 4 pts
Fox News - Obama 7 pts
Caddell/McLaughlin (R) - Obama  3 pts

Florida Times/Union - Obama 3 pts
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac - Obama 9 pts
Washington Post - Obama 4 pts
ARG - Obama 5 pts
Miami Herald/Mason Dixon - Obama 1 pt
PPP (D) - Obama 4 pts
Purple Strategies - Romney 1 pt
WeAskAmerica - Obama 3 pts
Fox News - Obama 5 pts
Graivs Marketing - Romney 1 pt
Caddell/McLaughlin (R) - Romney 4 pts

Romney has to win either Ohio or Florida, but preferably both.  If he loses both, then Romney has to run the table on batleground states winning Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Still Romney would be short 284-254 in the Electoral College.  Pulling off an upset in Minnesota wouldn't do it.  He'd have to win Michigan to win the EC 270-268, and recent polls show Romney behind by double figures in that state.

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