Thursday, August 2, 2012

Wednesday's State Polls Show Obama Slightly Increasing Lead in Key Battleground States

Real Clear Politics does a great job of gathering polling information.  When I look at the site these days, what I'm most interested in looking at this point are the presidential polls in the battleground states. States like Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida will be where the battle is ultimately won or lost.

Wednesday came a release of a slew of six state polls.  Not unexpectedly the polling showed Obama leading by 8 points in Connecticut (actually I am surprised that's not double digits) and Romney leading in Arizona by 11.  The other states, battleground territory were the most interesting.  Obama led by 6 points in Michigan, Ohio and Florida.  The Pennsylvania poll was the one I found most surprising as it showed Obama with an 11 point lead.  Most of the other polls showed Romney with a clear shot in Pennsylvania.  A win in the Keystone State, which traditionally goes to the Democrats, would shake up analyst's projected electoral maps.

The Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania polls released on Wednesday were done by CBS/New York Times.   Looking at the details on the polls, it would appear that Republicans were underpolled.  While 6% more Democrats were polled in Pennsylvania (not surprising), 8% more Democrats were polled in Ohio and 9% more in Florida.  Those two states are close in terms of voter registration and Florida (a closed primary state) may actually have more Republicans.  Of course, the number of independents has increased markedly and ultimately they tip the balance in these polls and the election.

Looking back at July polling in the three states this is what I found.

8% (Obama)
2% (Obama)
3% (Obama)

1% (Obama)
5% (Obama)
3% (Romney)
1% (Obama)
1% (Romney)
1% (Obama)

6% (Obama)
4% (Obama)
7% (Obama)


Nicolas Martin said...

Obama's a dreadful president, but I'd like to see the Republicans punished for their maniacal support for imperialism and corporatism. The Chinese have One Country, Two Systems, and We have Two Parties, One System.

M Theory said...

I concur, Nicholas.

Jeff Cox said...

Except the latest Pew poll that shows the sizable Obama lead in battleground states has a sample of D+19. By comparison, the POTUS exit poll in 2008, a wave year for Democrats, had D+7. The Quinnipiac poll had Ohio at D+9.

Obama likely has a very slight lead in the battleground states, which he is carbetbombing with dishonest ads on Bain Capital. But it's nothing overly serious right now.