The Rasmussen Poll on the Mourdock-Donnelly Race: Much Ado About Nothing

A few days ago, Rasmussen released a poll showing Republican Richard Mourdock with only a two point lead (42-40) over Democrat Joe Donnelly.  Yesterday on Civil Discourse Now, co-host Mark Small brought up the poll and suggested it reflects that Hoosier voters are rejecting Richard Mourdock's "extreme" views.  Never mind that Mark and others who state this view do not ever seem to be able to identify specifically which of Mourdock's views are "extreme," or how those views are somehow different than those held by most Hoosiers or Senator Lugar who Mourdock defeated in the primary.  The view that Mourdock is an "extremist" is a view without any substantive underpinnings.

Congressman Joseph Donnelly

Back to the poll.  Some Democrats are overjoyed and claim the poll, showing a dead heat, means Mourdock's message is not catching on while Donnelly's is.  The Mourdock campaign attempted to spin it the other way, that despite a significant expenditure of money Donnelly's numbers haven't moved.

Neither view is correct.  There is an old adage that voters don't really start paying attention to politics until Labor Day which is still a month away.  Unlike political pundits, the average person gets tired of 24/7/365 politics and tune outs until it is time to consider the options.  The window during which people pay attention to the political races, with the somewhat exception of the presidential race, is about two months before the general election.  While big race candidates have to run advertising before then to avoid being defined by an opponent, the advertising is generally not very effective in moving the numbers.

The narrow 42-40 Mourdock lead is simply is indicative of the fact that Mourdock took on a highly popular sitting Republican Senator in the primary...and soundly defeated him.  Republicans voters remain divided because of the primary, but it is more a division of loyalty to a popular sitting U.S. Senator, not a division over the issues.  There is no reason to believe as the Labor Day political aproaches, that Republicans and conservative-leaning independents won't return to supporting a conservative Republican candidate rather than a Democrat who voted for Obamacare.  The Rasmussen poll's number suggests Obamacare is very unpopular in Indiana and that Donnelly's position on the issue leaves him vulnerable to attack.

Indiana Treasurer
Richard Mourdock

Finally, I want to address the "I told you so" attitude of those who say the poll supports the notion that Mourdock is more beatable than Lugar would have been in a general election.  The number one issue that hurt Lugar was the perception he had been in Washington too long and was out of touch with Hoosiers.  The fact Lugar did not have an Indiana residence and stayed in luxury hotel rooms (charged to the taxpayers) on the rare occasions he came back to the Hoosier state highlighted that issue.  While Mourdock exploited the issue against Lugar in the primary, it is an issue that would have had even stronger legs with independent voters in a general election.  The notion that Lugar would have simply walked over Donnelly simply ignores the issues that made him a 20 point loser to Mourdock in the primary.  Mourdock beat Lugar with general election issues.

On Labor Day the U.S. Senate race starts.  That's when we should start taking these polls seriously.