Friday, May 4, 2012

Howey/Depauw Poll Shows Mourdock up 10 Points on Lugar

State Treasurer Richard Mourdock
The much anticipated Howey/DePauw poll on the Indiana Senate race was released this morning.  It shows State Treasurer Richard Mourdock leading Senator Richard Lugar 48% to 38%.   A previous Howey/DePauw conducted March 26-27, had Lugar ahead 42% to 35%.  That's a 17 point swing in the election in just 5 weeks.  Given the undecideds break at least 2-1 in favor of the challenger on Election Day, we're looking at a double digit election day victory by Mourdock over 36 year incumbent Lugar.

Clearly there is an anti-establishment mood out there in the Republican electorate.  I have doubts it translates much in Marion County, the hotbed of Republican establishment politics, but it could.  There are several slating contests where candidates are taking on the hand-picked choices of the county chairman, not just on the Republican side but also on the Democratic ballot.  The fact that so-called "endorsed" Marion County candidates have flagged such stiff competition this election cycle shows a breakdown in credibility for the slating system.

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