|State Treasurer |
Those acquainted with science of polling know the results spell huge problems for Lugar. First, he is well below the magic 50%, the number at which incumbents are generally considered to be in trouble. Second, and more importantly, the Lugar campaign is looking at 21% undecided. Undecided voters historically break for the challenger by margins of 4-1 or higher.
Let's assume that the undecideds break 4-1 for Mourdock. Then the final result is 54-46 Mourdock. Let's take a much more conservative approach though and say the undecideds only break 2-1 for Mourdock. Mourdock still wins 51-49.