Friday, April 6, 2012

Poll Shows Lugar in Deep Trouble

State Treasurer
Richard Mourdock
Howey Politics Indiana reported on the first, and perhaps last, independent poll in the Lugar-Mourdock battle for the Indiana Senate.   The poll by Bellwether Research and the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, shows Sen. Richard Lugar with a 42-37 lead over State Treasurer Richard Mourdock.  The poll conducted March 26-27, has a 4.5 margin of error.

Those acquainted with science of polling know the results spell huge problems for Lugar.  First, he is well below the magic 50%, the number at which incumbents are generally considered to be in trouble.  Second, and more importantly, the Lugar campaign is looking at 21% undecided.  Undecided voters historically break for the challenger by margins of 4-1 or higher.

Let's assume that the undecideds break 4-1 for Mourdock.  Then the final result is 54-46 Mourdock.  Let's take a much more conservative approach though and say the undecideds only break 2-1 for Mourdock.  Mourdock still wins 51-49.


Hoosier in the Heartland said...

Mourdock may "defeat" Lugar in the primary, but that doesn't mean he'll be elected Senator from Indiana.

He's a deeply flawed candidate, unable to win on his own merits (or lack thereof).

Questioning Lugar's residency does not a senator make.

Blog Admin said...

HIIH, Donnelly and Democratic backed SuperPACS have also raised Lugar's residency.

Donnelly is the type of D that Hoosiers would vote for. But the IN Dem party is in shambles right now. It'll be a huge hill to climb regardless of who the GOP nominates.

Sandra Brown said...

Abdul has a different spin on the same data. He views the poll as being favorable to Lugar.

Could it be that Abdul is on the Lugar Team payroll?

Bill said...

Paul..come on.

You teach politics right?

Politics 101

right now its 7 points..

The "L" is worth 4 over the "M"

11 point game now.

Even that whack job spokesperson of his campaign can't argue with this.

artfuggins said...

Donnelly is not much better than Mourdock. Why would the Dems want to fight to get him elected to just have a Mourdock-Lite senator??

Indy_liberal said...

Paul is right on the money with regard to how undecided voters break. Paul, I defer to your knowledge -- especially after the Indy mayoral race where you accurately predicted after the WTHR poll (33% Kennedy - 44% Ballard) that Ballard would win 51-47. I think you are right here as well -- Mourdock will most likely win with around 51% of the vote. Undecided voters, while not always, usually break 2-1 against the incumbent. Dick Lugar's campaign is on life-support at this point.