New Poll Show Lugar Falling Behind Mourdock

State Treasurer Richard Mourdock

Politico is reporting on a new poll that shows Sen. Richard Lugar falling behind State Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

The survey, taken Tuesday and Wednesday by Wenzel Strategies on behalf of Citizens United, places Mourdock at 44 percent and Lugar at 39 percent. Nearly 17 percent remain undecided with just 12 days to go until the Indiana Senate primary. 

Citizens United is backing Mourdock in the May 8 contest.

Wenzel found that Mourdock’s lead is powered by self-described tea party conservatives, who comprise 36 percent of the GOP electorate.

Among that group of voters, Mourdock holds a commanding 63 percent to 24 percent lead. Lugar’s ability to keep the race close is due to moderates and traditional conservatives, which both favor the incumbent, according to Wenzel.

Lugar’s favorability rating has slid nine points since the last Wenzel survey six weeks ago. It now stands at 44 percent, compared to Mourdock’s 38 percent. 

Both candidates’ unfavorable ratings have climbed — a by-product of the nasty air and mail campaign. 

In mid-March, a Wenzel survey showed Lugar clinging to just a 6-point advantage [44-38].

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Over on Facebook, some writers have chosen to attack the methodology in the Wenzel poll commissioned by Mourdock supporter Citizens' United.    That misses the point.  They key is the movement from the March to April polls.  Even if the methodology is flawed, as long as the methodology is the same from poll to poll (which it assuredly is), then the poll accurately reflects an 11 point swing in Mourdock's favor.

Remember that undecideds tend to break 2-1 in favor of the challenger...at least.  (Often it's as much as 4-1.)  If the Wenzel poll is accurate, Lugar is facing the possibility of a double figure loss on May 8th.