Saturday, January 21, 2012

What Will Happen Today in South Carolina? Ogden on Politics Predicts

Newt Gingrich
Polls the last few days show former Speaker Newt Gingrich pulling ahead of former Mitt Romney in South Carolina.  It is a stunning development.  This past week, the former Massachusetts Governor went from having a big lead in the South Carolina and on the on the verge of going a solid 3 for 3 in state contests to being 1 for 3, with the only win being New Hampshire, a state where he has a home.

Romney claimed "electability" as his ace in the hole. Indeed that at times seemed to be the only argument for his nomination. But this week Romney proved himself to be a very flawed candidate, with a tin ear to the world in which people live paycheck to paycheck.   That Romney consistently was showed as the most "electable" in polls represented nothing more than people simply repeating to pollsters what the common perception was of Romney was.  There was no foundation behind the conclusion, no reason to believe a terribly flawed Romney, despised by his own party, would be a good general election candidate.

Further clouds are on the horizon.  If Rick Santorum finishes fourth, which is very possible, he may choose to drop out further consolidating the anti-Romney vote with Gingrich.

PREDICTION:  The finish today will be Gingrich, Romney, Paul and last Santorum. The third and fourth place finishers could flip but I'm predicting Paul eeks out a third place finish.


varangianguard said...

It's South Carolina. If Newter couldn't win here, his candidacy was doomed anyway. People need not read too much into a Gingrich win here. It's an atypical southern state adjoining the (former) home of former Speaker Gingrich. HE should have won this state in a landslide. Not doing so would be a more important message, I would think.

Jennifer said...


natalie said...

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