Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Santorum Surges in CNN Poll of Iowa Voters While Romney Takes Lead

Rick Santorum
CNN released an interesting Iowa poll today.

Iowa (12/21-12/27)
Romney 25
Paul 22
Santorum 16
Gingrich 14
Perry 11
Bachmann 9

In reviewing whether there has been movement in polls, it is best to compare a recent poll to an earlier poll conducted by the same polling outfit.  CNN did a poll in Iowa back in late November, early December.

Iowa (11/29-12/6)
Gingrich  33
Romney 20
Paul 17
Perry 9
Bachmann 7
Santorum 5

Public Policy Polling also released a poll today.  PPP's poll though showed Paul maintaining a lead.

Iowa (12/26-12/27)
Paul 24
Romney 20
Gingrich 13
Bachmann 11
Perry 10
Santorum 10

PPP released an Iowa poll ten days ago that looked like this:

Iowa (12/16-12/18)
Paul 23
Romney 20
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Santorum 10
Bachmann 10

CONCLUSIONS:  I have always expected one of three of the non-Romney candidates, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, or Texas Governor Rick Perry, to defy expectations and be deemed a winner with a second or third place finish in Iowa.  If it is Perry or Bachmann it would be a resurrection. But given the CNN poll, I'm more inclined to think it will be Santorum going to New Hampshire with momentum.  The campaigns of the two other candidates will be on life support.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich appears to be in real trouble.  His Iowa expectations have already been built up but his numbers are falling like a rock.  He's likely to end up in 3rd or worse in Iowa, but more importantly as measured against expectations he is almost certainly to fail.

Congressman Ron Paul and former Massachusetts Mitt Romney appear positioned to fight it out for the top spot in the Iowa caucus.  I think though Romney's surge is unfortunate for his campaign.  He wasn't expected to win Iowa, but suddenly some polls are showing him leading that state.  But I doubt he can compete in that state against Ron Paul's superior organization and enthusiastic supporters.

As of today, I expect the media will deem Ron Paul (1st place) and Santorum (2nd or 3rd place) as the "winners" of the Iowa caucus.

6 comments:

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Interesting that you predict Santorum coming in 2nd. I hope Iowa puts Gingrich out of commission in this race.

Of all the candidates, Gingrich is the only one I would not vote for if he were running against Obama. I would vote for Obama over Gingrich.

That means I trust Gingrich less than I trust Obama to lead our country.

Indy Student said...

I don't think Santorum can really run anywhere else. Perry and Bachmann at least have some name recognition and support, or can build it quickly, outside of Iowa. Same with Gingrich if he was running a serious campaign.

Santorum has basically lived in Iowa for a year and has no record of having any support elsewhere. He's polling just as well, or even below, super long shot GOP candidates like Buddy Roemer and Fred Karger over in New Hampshire. And the last time he ran for office in nearby Pennsylvania, he got trounced.

If Santorum places high in the caucuses (and I suspect he can), it basically kills the Not-Romney choices who could build effective campaigns.

Paul K. Ogden said...

While IS I agree with your analysis on Santorum, the fact is if he wins in Iowa that may propel him into being the next anti-Romney candidate.

I think you are overemphasizing Santorum's loss in 2006. He was running against Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of a very popular former Governor. It was a very bad Republican year.

Although he lost 59-41, the fact is Santorum won in a heavily Democratic congressional district when he was first elected to Congress in 1992 at 32. He defeated a Democratic incumbent for U.S. Senate in 1994 and was re-elected in 2000. Yeah, he's had a bad loss but so has candidates like Reagan, Nixon and Lincoln who all lost elections and went on to win the presidency.

marksmall2001 said...

Paul,
I think you forget the negative ideological baggage Santorum carries. There are a lot of people who are more scared of what Santorum would do to rights of choice, and other matters, than any of the other candidates. I think Gingrich wanted to sell books, but that's beside the point. Gingrich did not have an organization. And Santorum should not be compared w/Washington and Lincoln. He's not in the same class re: IQ.

Cato said...

Santorum isn't "surging," a despicable Republican liar's word.

This race is between Paul and Romney, and the GOP establishment is hoping to land on a candidate acceptable to them who can draw Paul's voters.

They're also trying to deflect any media attention away from Paul solid status at or near the top.

Nicolas Martin said...

Cato, you had better get used to the fact that the great majority of Republicans do not agree with Ron Paul and won't vote for him. They want an imperial welfare state at perpetual war which faithfully services special interests that pay the bills. The dominant nanny state Christians want a government that hates gays, drug users, abortion doctors, and anyone who doesn't subscribe to the most primitive Biblical doctrine. Of course they would prefer Santorum. Who better reflects their values (and isn't a shady Mormon)?

I do not expect Ron Paul to win Iowa, and he won't get more than 15 percent in any state, except possibly Nevada.