Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Cain Continues Surge, Ties Romney for Lead

New CBS News poll puts businessman Herman Cain in a tie with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination.  Here are the results of that poll:

Cain 17, Romney 17, Perry 12, Gingrich 8, Paul 7, Bachmann 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2.

Cain is up from 5% in the CBS polling just two weeks ago.  Perry's 12% represents an 11 point drop.  Romney only edged up 1% despite Perry's large drop. 

It is clear that a majority of Republicans do not like Romney and continue to search for a candidate.


Jedna Vira said...

And Cain is doing it with far less money than the others. He has grass root support that will pay off.

Blog Admin said...

The problem with these types of polls is that national polls, at this point, don't matter, since most people don't live in an early primary state.

For a candidate like Cain, who is generally considered a lower tier candidate, to capitalize on polls like this, he needs to win at least one of the early states, and then at least not do horribly in the other handful of early states.

Since several states may be moving up their primary, even at the cost of delegates, it'll mean candidates like Cain, Huntsman, and Bachmann will be spread thin or forced to concentrate on 1-2 states. Meaning the more establishment candidates, like Perry and Romney, will be able to campaign wide and big.

Cain's numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are still second to fourth, depending on the polls. He's polling, though, very well in South Carolina and Florida. If he can finish second or third in New Hampshire and Iowa, and then WIN SC or Florida, he'll be viable. The question is if he can last that long.

Paul K. Ogden said...


I agree except for the fact that there is a snowball effect. The national polls represent momentum which usually filters down to the early primary/caucus states.

The polls that have no meaning right now are the head-to-head polls. I don't even know why they conduct them.