Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Will There Be A Democratic Backlash That Extends To Local Politics?

Over at Indy Democrat, blogger Jon Easter speculates that the issues raised by the Republicans that have the Democrats all riled up, could spill over into the 2011 Indianapolis municipal elections.

You betcha.

A physics principle is that for every action, you have an equal and opposite reaction.  It's the same thing in politics. Republicans win big in 2010 and push their agenda.  That riles up the Democrats' constituency and they make gains in 2011 and quite possibly 2012.

Opinion polls do not measure the intensity of one's views.   Even if a poll says an issue is 80% to 20%, it doesn't mean that the 80% side wins in the democratic process.   There is a term in political science called a "voting issue."  A voting issue is an issue that affects the way you vote.  In the aforementioned example, it may a voting issue to the 20% while not to the 80%.

What is a "voting issue" can also change with election cycles.  For example, for years abortion has been a voting issue for pro-life voters a lot more than it has been for pro-choice voters.  That's because the pro-choice side has gotten what they wanted and began voting on other issues. Once pro-lifers start winning battles in the legislature, you'll see more pro-choice voters make abortion a voting issue and that will filter down to political races and how elected officials react.  Action - Reaction.

Democratic voters will be highly motivated this election year.  They will be looking for races to express their anger and frustration.  The one here in the big city is the Indianapolis Mayor and Council races.  I'm predicting that Mayor Ballard loses by more than 10% and that Democrats win 19 of the 29 seats up for grabs.  (The D's now have 13.)  It's quite possible the Democratic tide will be worse than that. 

I remember a certain Democratic blogger roundly mocking me when I disputed his claim that the Democrats would make gains in the 2010 elections.  I pointed out that wasn't the history...that the out party almost always makes big gains in the mid-term election of a new president's first term.  I predicted the Republicans would make strong gains.  Haven't heard from that blogger in awhile...

6 comments:

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

If we vote for a democrat for mayor will she walk off the job if she doesn't like something? Cause that seems to be the mentality.

Cato said...

Melyssa, the Democratic base considers it ***doing their job*** for the Democrats to prevent the Republicans from doing, what the Democrats consider, evil.

If Democrats were proposing an outright gun ban, and the Republicans absconded to Tennessee to keep a ban from being enacted, the Republicans would be roundly regarded as heroes and patriots for keeping our rights from being taken.

You fight with what you have, and this tactic is not much different than a party killing a bill in committee or with other procedural devices.

The Democrats were elected to serve the needs of the Democrats who elected them. By stopping this legislation, the Democrats served their constituents, and the constituents would have been disappointed if the Democrats didn't fight with everything they had over this.

The Democrats are willing to shut down the state over this, and it's the Republicans' job as politicians to decide whether this law is so important to risk the overall operation of the state.

Paul K. Ogden said...

I agree with Cato's explanation.

Cato said...

Talk about backlash, did you see where a Indiana Republican Deputy AG is in really hot water over his desire to use live ammunition on Wisconsin labor protesters?

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02/indiana-official-jeff-cox-live-ammunition-against-wisconsin-protesters

Paul K. Ogden said...

Cato,

I just read that he got fired. I have, or I should say had, a case with Jeff Cox. He's pleasant to deal with, a real professional. I can't say that about everyone in that office, including one DAG with over 30 years experience.

Jeff Cox shouldn't have said what he said. But firing him over it sounds more than a little extreme.

I am going to post about a DAG over there who lied to a federal judge about there being a grand jury investigation of my client for wiretapping. There was no grand jury. She may well have played a role in the destruction of evidence. Carter, Zoeller's predecessor, never even bothered to hold an investigation into her doncut and in fact promoted her. Today she is one of the top people in the AG's office under Zoeller.

AmericanVet said...

"Melyssa, the Democratic base considers it ***doing their job*** for the Democrats to prevent the Republicans from doing, what the Democrats consider, evil.

If Democrats were proposing an outright gun ban, and the Republicans absconded to Tennessee to keep a ban from being enacted, the Republicans would be roundly regarded as heroes and patriots for keeping our rights from being taken.

You fight with what you have, and this tactic is not much different than a party killing a bill in committee or with other procedural devices.

The Democrats were elected to serve the needs of the Democrats who elected them. By stopping this legislation, the Democrats served their constituents, and the constituents would have been disappointed if the Democrats didn't fight with everything they had over this.

The Democrats are willing to shut down the state over this, and it's the Republicans' job as politicians to decide whether this law is so important to risk the overall operation of the state."

That above is BS piled high and deep. The Democrats have shut down the state and the Democrats are fighting the will of the people and the Democrats who refuse to work need to be replaced. Republicans won the election because the voters wanted them in office and want them to do what they are doing. Democrats are giving the finger to the people and the system - are they toddlers or are they anarchists? Nothing about running away is ethical or courageous or in line with the idea of democracy! Cowards who go AWOL in the military get a courts martial. Let's find a way to toss these bums out and replace them with honest Hoosiers who work for a living!