Tuesday, November 2, 2010

What To Look For in Early Results - Marion County

Over the past 20 years, demographic trends have resulted in five Marion County townships switching from Republican control to Democratic. Pike now has the largest Democratic base vote percentage wise - approximately 67%. Washington Township, Pike's neighbor on the northside, is next with about 60%. In three townships - Lawrence, Wayne and Warren - Republicans still have a fighting chance despite long-term trends that favor the Democrats.

When you are watching the early results, if you want to figure out whether the national Republican tidal wave has made it to Marion County, look at the township races in Lawrence, Wayne and Warren. If Republican candidates in those townships are winning, the chances of Mark Massa and the rest of the Republican county ticket winning increases. Without a majority Republican vote in those townships, a Republican county candidate can't win. Right now the Republicans only control the southern three townships - Franklin, Perry and Decatur. There simply isn't enough Republican vote in those townships to offset Democratic wins in the other six townships.

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