Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Political Predictions for 2009

Here are my predictions for 2009 based on a little bit of inside information but mostly just guesses based on my gut instinct:
  • Carl Brizzi will choose to not run for a 3rd term as Marion County Prosecutor. (Politicians who have successfully been elected are generally risk adverse. With the 40% base vote Republicans had in 2008 county-wide races why risk losing?)
  • As Hoosier unemployment continues to skyrocket in 2009, Governor Daniels' popularity will sink. (Unfairly, I might add. There is very little a state Governor can do in the midst of a world-wide recession. But when you are on the hot seat, you not only get the credit when the economy takes off, you get the blame when the economy tanks.)
  • Behind-the-scenes, strong-arm tactics of the Mayor Ballard's administration on council Republicans who dare question what is happening on the 25th Floor will surface.
  • Instead of following his predecessor's lead, Greg Zoeller will take the Attorney General's Office in a more active direction, including using the office to assist prosecutors by investigating white collar crime. (This is more hope than anything.)
  • Sheriff Frank Anderson exploratory interest in the Mayor's Office will be derailed by questions relating to his receipt and expenditure of funds related to the operation of jails. (While yours truly raised questions on these pages recently about nearly a quarter of a million dollars being moved from one account to another to pay CCA which operates Jail #2, I have been told by several people there are a lot more issues out there regarding the handling of jail money.)
  • Expect a Republican reform movement, opposed to the Old Guard which has operated in Marion County for decades, to begin to get traction.
  • Tom John will be re-elected county chairman. Opponent Henry Karlson, if he runs, will get a protest vote of 25% to 30%.

Possibly more predictions later.


Anonymous said...

Why and how much do you think the Governors approval will sink? Also do you really think Greg Zoeller will be a decent AG?

Paul K. Ogden said...

I don't know exactly what his numbers are now, but he just came off a very successful election. I just don't think you can go from that point and increase your popularity yet more...a letdown is inevitable. Then you have the unemployment in Indiana that has really taken off. Again, I don't think it's fair to blame the Governor for that, 99% of which is outside his control. But that is a fact of life when you are in that seat.

I think Greg Zoeller can be an excellent AG. But he needs to put his own stamp on the office. If he approaches the job as if this were simply the third term of Steve Carter and adopts his predecessor's inactive approach to the job, then I think he will have fallen short of what he can and should achieve in office.

Anonymous said...

Before Mayor Ballard's administration uses strong-arm tactics on council Republicans 'who dare question what is happening on the 25th Floor' I hope Mayor Ballard realizes that many of his 'ex-followers' are now following those leaders and those leaders are addressing OUR complaints. We will not be ignored!

We will PACK city-hall and CIRCLE the wagon!

This Rogue leadership style is not what we need!

Anonymous said...

Brizzi: after alienating the GOP base with his self-absorbed campaign and playboy behavior in and out of the courtroom, Brizzi is done in politics. His self-financed radio gig will tank and he will lurch into barrister anonymity.

Tom John: will go down in history as the worse and most currupt GOPchairman in MC history and his Lake County financing scheme comes to light as well as some Watergatesque facts about the Clerks office are exposed.Mayor Ballard is just a segue. One term and hands over the reigns to Mark Miles who is tossing his own name around like confetti.will get trounced by a surprise candidate GOP loses council, TJ loses his last ounce of political capital and is dumped by Ice. Democrats run the county from this day forward

2010: Dems gain Prosecutor's Office and the Mayor's office in 11. Tada!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 12:30.

As an active Republican supporter, I can't agree with you more. Whats the use in having republicans in the office when they mistreat their own and retaliate against those who exercise their constitutional rights.

Unless there is reform, I'll worked full-time for free for the democrat party to get these bums out of office.

Anonymous said...

I hear there was a private meeting with Tom John and Ice Miller partners and they've assured him partnership if he helps them win, and republicans lose, the mayors office and the council.

Apparently Tom's desparate because his firm failed financially and he can deliver little else to Ice Miller since he's not much of a rainmaker because of his poor interpersonal skills. The only thing he has to offer is to throw the republican party under the bus since Barnes & Thornburg took absolute control of the city. Ice Miller thought Tom John would manuever Ice into position, which didn't happened. Otherwise, Ice will throw throw Tom John out on his ass for lack of performance and he'd be a man without a job or prospects due to his piss-poor high profile record of sabatoging his own teammates.