Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Election Results in Marion And Lake County; Can Governor Daniels Climb Out of a 110,000 Vote Hole?

When the polls close on the evening of November 4th, one would be wise to look closely at the vote totals of two counties, Marion and Lake, which counties may decide the fortunes of the state-wide Republican candidates. Okay, for the Lake County results we may be waiting until November 5th.

In 2004, Democrat Kernan beat Republican Mitch Daniels by 18,272 votes in Marion County. Kernan beat Daniels by 57,427 in Lake County. Registration has exploded in Marion and Lake Counties. Given the increased registration which appears to be heavily Democrat in and what is likely to be a heavy minority turnout, expect the Democrats' margins to soar in those two counties.

I'm predicting that Jill Long Thompson will win Marion County by more than 30,000 votes and Lake by 80,000, for a total margin in those two counties of 110,000 votes.

The fate of Daniels and other state-wide Republican candidates hinges on the support of a handful of strong Republican counties in the State. Three donut counties, which are vital to Republicans' success in offsetting Democrat Marion and Lake counties are Hamilton, Johnson and Hendricks counties. Hamilton County delivered a 49,117 margin for Daniels in 2004, while Johnson and Hendricks County gave an 18,016 and 20,070 edge to Daniels respectively. While I'm guessing Obama runs ahead of the Republican base in that county, I also expect a sizable number of voters to cast Obama-Daniels votes in those counties.

Outside of the donut counties, Allen County is important for Republicans. Mitch Daniels won it by 19,790 last time. Since this is Jill Long Thompson's home turf, will she be able to significantly reduce Daniels' advantage in that county? What about Elkhart County's 16,024 margin for Daniels in 2004? Will Daniels' margin in that district be narrowed by the toll road privatization lease?

In the not too distant future, I'll be doing an analysis of where I think the margins will be in each county on Election Day.


Anonymous said...

I was just wondering could you explain how you came up with the numbers for JLTs votes in lake and marion county? And also could you explain on a geographic scale which regions you think will go for JLT and which will go for Mitch?

Paul K. Ogden said...

On Marion and Lake County I worked off the 2004 numbers for those counties, then tried to ballpark in the explosion in voter registration in those counties, the minority population and the general enthusiasm for Obama. I think Obama will run ahead of JLT in both those counties. Basically I worked off the margin of victory in the two races. That's key.

I predict the margin in Lake will increase by 40%. That's because of the registration advantage, the enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate and a large minority population that will turn out in high numbers for Obama. There may even be some fraud, dare I say mixed in. In Marion I think there will be an even larger increase in the margin - from 18K to 30K for the Democrat candidate. That's a bigger increase in the margin (67%). I assigned tha figure because Indianapolis, unlike Gary and some of the Democrat areas of Lake are not growing and probably lost substantial population compared to Indianapolis. In short, Indy is also trending mroe and more Democrat every day.

I think Mitch's strongest area will be the donut counties and Central Indiana. He will be weakest in the north. The south will be the battleground.

M Theory said...

And Paul, don't forget that those of us who are principled enough to think the Constitution MUST be obeyed are going to vote for Andy Horning. We are folks that would otherwise be voting for our governor.

And while some in the Republican party will say we are stealing votes from Mitch to that I say...that the Republicans should have cleaned up America when they had the chance to do it. THey failed us when they failed to thoroughly clean the rats out of their party.

And it's a shame...cause I really do think a lot of Mitch Daniels and think he's the best governor we've ever had in Indiana. But he's not done enough to FORCE his party to get cleaned up.

Oh...and the way the Republicans treat Ron Paul (the only real conservative who called it right on the current economic crisis) is deplorable!

mackenzie197 said...

I tell you HFFT, on are where Republicans have failed is privatization. It's a great idea for many services but our implentation of it has been horrible.

The idea of privatization is that private companies will compete in the market place to provide government services. We, however, privatize services for which there might be only one vendor "competing" for the contract. Where is the competition there? Then we give them long-term contracts and don't monitor compliance with the contract.

In many instances privatization has simply turned into the new patronage...a way political candidates and office holders can get big contributions form corporations wanting to buy influence into the privatization decision. Again, privatization is a good idea that we have bungled horribly.

Anonymous said...

I hear that the Guv is psyched because Sam Carson is backing him. But I hear that Andre is hosting a big event for JLT next week. So I wonder which Carson will help which ticket more.

Anonymous said...

If Obama and asociates are plotting to steal this election,
I am waiting to see how many unsuspecting democrats get caught up in this voting fraud scam that ACORN has organized. How many Obama supporters will be indicted and convicted after the election?
You can bet there will be plenty of eyes and ears across this country watching this election and if there are any close races, look for many lawsuits to be filed.