Saturday, October 25, 2008

Indiana Republicans: Beware Marion And Lake Counties

I've said it before on these pages, Marion and Lake Counties are going to put Republicans in a hole that they are not expecting. I previously predicted the Republican deficit in the Governor's race will be 110,000 votes in those two counties. I think Daniels will be able to climb out of the Democrat Marion and Lake County hole with the help of cross-over from voters who are voting Democrat in other races. The other state-wide Republican candidates? Well, let's just say I'd keep those resumes up to date.

Over at Advance Indiana, blogger Gary Welsh notes the early voting advantage Democrats have in Marion and Lake counties. The Indianapolis Star has a story this morning detailing the breakdown of the early votes in the Indianapolis metro area and Lake County.

As Advance Indiana notes, the early vote in Democrat Marion and Lake Counties is substantially higher than in the Republican counties surrounding Marion County. To give you some perspective, the population in Marion County is about 3 1/2 times that of Hamilton County. Hamilton County has 6,345 early voters. Proportionally that should mean Marion County would have 22,208 early voters. Instead Marion County has 42,230 early votes, an extra 20,000. That is significant and something that will have an effect all the way down the ballot, not just in the presidential race.

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