Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Deal or No Deal? Are People Really That Stupid?

Tonight I caught the end of a Deal or No Deal segment. The contestant had a $1 suitcase and two $1 million suitcases left. (This was one of those shows where they had multiple $1 million suitcases...in this game there were 7 of them.)

The offer was something like $625,000. I would have taken the offer. Why? Because there was a 2/3 chance one of the $1 million suitcases would get knocked out on my next selection. If that happened, the banker's offer would drop substantially and I'd be pretty much stuck with taking it because my safety net was gone.

The contestant picked a $1 million case which left the $1 and $1,000,000 cases. At this point he still manages to get something like a $415,000 offer, which I'm thinking is much higher than it needed to be. Still it is a no brainer...any rational, sane person would take the $415,000 rather than risk going home with only $1. If $415,000 is wisely invested it would be a million dollars in only a few years anyway, thanks to compound interest.

The contestant, at the urging of his friends of family (with the exception of his wise mother who counseled otherwise), turned down the deal. After that decision, the contestant lost my support and I began cheering against him. Nobody that clueless about odds and the value of money should be entrusted with $1 million. Indeed after deciding to keep his original case, the contestant walked away from the show only $1 richer.

Now I know why so many people play the lottery.

1 comment:

sd nan said...

On the globe involving high-priced designer watches rolex replica Armani series include the ideal which in turn stuns people using exceptional classiness, fashion along with beauties. Your Italian developer Giorgio Armani has built a lot of developer designer watches that will go well with pertaining to daywear along with nightwear. Most notable, AR5328 features steel scenario using sparkling wine patek philippe replica face along with natural leather band. Some time can be revealed using about three side activity, a pair of occasion areas and specific zones the other night out. Emporio Armani can be yet another common style pertaining to adult men that provide beige a pair of amount face, natural leather band along with darkish synthetic croco. To the girls, Armani AR3140 screen Roman numeral hours u-boat replica prints using a pair of side activity. They have got bead face along with crystal clear precious gems. they enjoy revisits your ancient Louis Vuitton Trunks & Luggage company logo inside classy silver precious metal coloring along with showy red colorization. It does not take Louis Vuitton a symbol signature bank, your Trunks along with hublot replica Luggage company logo made throughout 1905 that will clothes up the face of an brand-new Tambour style, along with the red/silver dials along with important white/ crimson alligator band. At this time, there are many involving chrono wristwatches offered.