Electoral College Websites & Trends

This semester, I'm having each of my students follow four states. The class before the election, I'm going to go through the class and have the students following each individual state predict which candidate will win that state. They'll be picking against their instructor. Normally I have a good track record predicting which way states will go on Election Day.

The last two presidential elections my incorrect guesses on state outcomes could, total, be counted on one hand. It wasn't exactly difficult though since virtually every state went the same way the poll numbers were showing that state would go. This election I expect to be one where the results are dramatically different from the poll numbers. I see a few red flags on the Republican side. There seems to, despite Palin, be a lack of enthusiasm for the ticket. That enthusiasm will not only drive turnout, it has already driven records numbers of people to register and vote in the Democrat Primary. The second, and even more serious, is that I expect that this election to be all about the economy, and Obama is perceived as much stronger than McCain on that issue. In fact, McCain doesn't seem at all comfortable talking about economic issues. McCain's heart is in being commander in chief, a job for which he has unassailable qualifications. But American presidential elections are rarely about foreign policy, a fact Indiana Senator Richard Lugar found out during his ill-fated run for the White House.

Tracking the Electoral College picture has been made much easier by several good websites. Let's take a look at a few of those and their current trends:

http://www.electoralvote.com/
Obama 282, McCain 256

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama 305.8, McCain 232.2

http://www.270towin.com/
Obama 202, McCain 163, 173 Undecided

Real Clear Electoral College Map
Obama 211, McCain 189, 138 Tossup
Obama 273, McCain 265 (when you click the "No Tossup States" tab)

CCN Electoral College Map
222 Obama, 200 McCain, 115 Tossup

Real Clear Politics Tossup States
Nevada
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virgina
Florida
New Hampshire

CNN Tossup States
Nevada
Colorado
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
New Hampshire

The differences between the two tossup lists? Real Clear Politics includes Indiana and Pennsylvania as tossups while CNN does not. CNN though includes Colorado, while RCP does not.

Normally predictions are a matter of taking these few tossup states, studying history, polls and trends, and making a prediction as to those states. There are elections though where event states that have polled consistently for one candidate go to the other on Election Day. That happened in 1980 when Reagan won 489 to 49 in the Electoral College over then President Carter. It wasn't that on Election Day Reagan was polling ahead in every state except Hawaii, Minnesota, West Virginia, Geogia, Maryland, Rhode Island, and D.C., the states he lost. (Yes I know D.C. is not a state.) In fact the polls going into that election showed Reagan with only a slight lead nationally. But when Election Day came, those people who said they were going to vote for Carter simply were not enthused about their selection and stayed home.

I see the same 1980 enthusiasm gap this year but in reverse. While Palin helped to close the enthusiasm gap for McCain, in the end I still believe the historal trend will hold that voters do not vote for Vice President, they vote for President. McCain has a huge hurdle to clear to get his people to the polls on Election Day. It is an effort I believe will fall substantially short creating a chasm between the polls and the various state election results.