Tuesday, August 19, 2008

McCain Up Six Points In Indiana

The Survey USA poll conducted 8/16 through 8/18 which was just released shows McCain now has a six point lead over Obama in Indiana.

Real Clear Politics' electoral map now shows the gap narrowing as well. The electoral vote race is shown as split 228-178 in favor of Obama with 132 tossup electoral votes. However, when the tossup electoral votes (Indiana is still listed as a tossup) are counted according to their latest polls, McCain is shown as ahead of Obama 274-264. The reason for the recent change? The new poll switching tossup Indiana from the Obama column to McCain's.

I would like nothing more to see a McCain victory if for nothing more than replacing two of the liberal judges on the U.S. Supreme Court who are likely to retire in the next four years. While it's obvious Obama has slipped, I still think there is an enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two candidates that is enormously important in terms of turnout but difficult to measure in the polls. Again, this year reminds me so much of 1980 when the Reagan and Carter were almost in a dead heat going into an election that turned into a Republican landslide.

Within a day or so we're likely to know Obama's choice for vice president. His recent dip in the polls confirms the candidate I think he needs the most to shore up his ticket: Hillary Clinton. Would Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh or Joe Biden encourage voters to support the Obama ticket when they otherwise would not? No, but Hillary would. As much as I do not like her politics, I respect someone with political skill and ability to reach and motivate voters. She has it. The men don't.

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